Big 12 - Will it be an Oklahoma-Missouri rematch?

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08/22/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Missouri Tigers were the number one team in the country at the end of the regular season, but Oklahoma pounded them by three touchdowns in the Big 12 Championship game. Will these two teams hook up at Arrowhead Stadium on December 6 for the rematch?

The Tigers will surely be there, as they have the schedule that suits a return trip. However, look for the Sooners to have a tougher time getting to Kansas City, as the rest of the South presents more of a challenge than last year.

The Big 12 had an outstanding season in 2007, winning 34 of 48 non-league FBS games with an impressive 27-21 ATS record. Just two years ago, the conference had won only 25 of 40 contests and finished below .500 ATS at 21-24.

Perhaps the biggest indication of success came from the matchups vs. the other five BCS leagues. The Big 12 won 10 of 19 of those games, a marked improvement from its 6-12 record in 2006.

Time to track the progress of the 12 clubs, followed by their odds to win their respective divisions, the conference title and the BCS Championship game:

SOUTH DIVISION

1) TEXAS (5-2, 2-1, 20-1) - The Longhorns are 1-3 the last two years in their final two regular season games. A 2-0 record in '08, along with a win in the conference championship, might mean a possible trip to Miami.

Offense - Colt McCoy suffered through a sophomore slump in '07 with 18 interceptions. Look for him to have his best season to date behind one of the top offensive lines in the country. Even with the loss of Jamaal Charles, the ground game will still be strong, as Texas always produces a solid running attack.

Defense - The Longhorns were abused through the air last season, allowing over 300 ypg in league play. Expect significant improvement with the presence of new DC Will Muschamp.

Outlook - Texas underachieved last season and still won 10 games. This team is loaded with talent ready to burst into the national spotlight, especially LB Sergio Kindle and DT Roy Miller. The Horns will lose one conference game en route to an 11-1 campaign. They are 5-1-1 ATS the last four years as a home underdog.

2) OKLAHOMA (4-7, 1-1, 6-1) - The Sooners outgained their Big 12 foes by just 35.5 ypg (fifth best) and were outgained by over 100 in the Fiesta Bowl loss.

Offense - We all know the Oklahoma o-line is the best in the game and DeMarco Murray is the real deal, but can Sam Bradford repeat as the nation's number one quarterback? He led the country with a 176.5 QB rating while breaking Colt McCoy's record for most TD passes by a freshman. Don't forget the Sooners finished just ninth in league play in total offense, a year when everything clicked just right.

Defense - Oklahoma allowed 893 rushing yards (4.8 ypc) and recorded just five sacks in its final six games after giving up only 651 yards (2.4 ypc) with 25 sacks in its first eight matchups. Opposing Big 12 QBs had a field day vs. the Sooners, hitting at a 63% clip, up from 51% the year before. Only five starters return this year, and star DE Auston English won't be 100% after an emergency appendectomy in late July.

Outlook - Despite the probability of winning 10 games, look for their two defeats to come in conference play. They are 2-8-1 ATS as road favorites the last four years.

3) TEXAS TECH (4-1, 5-1, 40-1) - The Red Raiders outscored their opponents 41-26 last season, but the margin of victory decreased to just 34-30 in Big 12 play.

Offense - There's no denying how effective this offense is, and it could be even stronger in '08 as the offensive line brings back 77 career starts as opposed to 12 in '07. Texas Tech was number one in league play in total offense, but only seventh in scoring.

Defense - The front seven, which brought back just 29 career starts, ranked 10th in Big 12 play allowing over 200 rushing ypg. The two units return a combined 88 career starts this year, so look for massive improvement vs. the run.

Outlook - Texas Tech will be a much more complete football team this season. Nonetheless, the Red Raiders will not defeat Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas (their lone three losses for the year). They're 9-20 ATS off a SU win the last four years.

4) OKLAHOMA STATE (8-1, 25-1, 125-1) - The Cowboys have compiled back-to-back 6-6 regular seasons records the past two years, but could win nine in '08.

Offense - Zac Robinson ripped off a 149 QB rating last season after replacing Bobby Reid. The o-line, which returns four starters, allowed just six sacks in the final 12 games. Even though Dantrell Savage has graduated, the Cowboys have a pair of backs ready to take over the load in Kendall Hunter and Beau Johnson.

Defense - The coaching staff has been ecstatic with the overall talent level compared to previous seasons, especially on the line. A ton of JUCOs have been brought in to replace eight of last year's top 14 tacklers, so there won't be much of a drop-off in production.

Outlook - This is by far the most well-rounded team Oklahoma State has had in the Mike Gundy era, and it will show as the team puts forth a nine-win campaign (5-3 in league play). The Cowboys are 9-21 as a road dog this decade.

5) TEXAS A&M (8-1, 20-1, 100-1) - Mike Sherman and his pro-style offense come to Aggie Land. Unfortunately, the personnel might not be suited for the change.

Offense - Stephen McGee, who saw his QB rating drop 17 points last year, will have to operate with a brand new offensive system and an o-line that brings back just 21 career starts after returning 107 last year. In addition, Jorvorskie Lane isn't overly excited about his move to fullback.

Defense - Last year's "D" was of the bend-but-not-break variety, finishing eighth in Big 12 play allowing 4.4 ypc and seventh in QB completion percentage at 62%. Still, the unit ranked a healthy fourth in scoring. Look for a fall off in that category as the entire front seven brings back a total of 25 career starts.

Outlook - The Aggies receive a break as they do not have to face Missouri and Kansas. Nevertheless, a 5-7 record, with just two conference wins, is in the cards. Texas A&M is 5-1-1 ATS as a home underdog the last four years.

6) BAYLOR (30-1, 70-1, 25-1 Field) - The Bears are just 21-49 the last six years, but are a .500 club (18-18) through the first six games each season over that span.

Offense - Art Briles moves from Houston to Waco in order to inject some life into a dormant program. Unfortunately, turning things around in the Big 12 South is not that easy. The offense committed 28 turnovers in league play, and TO's have been a major problem in fall scrimmages.

Defense - Baylor allowed an average of 44 ppg in conference play, a higher mark than even Nebraska. Opposing league rushers scooted for 4.9 ypc, which amazingly, is a full yard less than the previous campaign. Baylor loses both starting cornerbacks, which is never a good thing in the Big 12.

Outlook - Briles will improve the team's play over time, but it might not happen this year. Two wins are all the Bears will attain, with the lone Big 12 victory coming over Iowa State. They are 7-17 ATS as underdogs the last three years.

NORTH DIVISION

1) MISSOURI (4-7, 7-2, 14-1) - A win over the Sooners in the Big 12 title game would have had the Tigers in the BCS Championship contest.

Offense - Heisman trophy hopefuls Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin lead an offense that ranked number one in scoring in league play. The "O" won't miss a beat as Chase Coffman will be more of a focal point without Martin Rucker, and Derrick Washington is entirely capable of replacing Tony Temple.

Defense - The Tigers' run defense has improved in each of the last seven years, and if their performance in the Cotton Bowl is any indication, this will be their finest season yet. Last year's defense was tops in league play allowing 354 total yards per game and things will only get better for the best team in the conference.

Outlook - The Tigers will have just one hiccup (at Texas), but will avenge the loss in the championship contest. Missouri is a great play at 7-2 to win the Big 12. More importantly, 14-1 to win the BCS Championship is a gift. Gary Pinkel's club is 10-2 ATS in non-conference games the last three years.

2) KANSAS (3-1, 8-1, 65-1) - Mark Mangino's club won 12 of 13 games last year, including the Orange Bowl. Most folks expect a huge drop off, but the Jayhawks are for real.

Offense - Mangino named Todd Reesing the starter over Kerry Meier last fall, and for good reason. The junior finished the year with a 148.8 QB rating and a 33-7 TD/Int ratio. The Jayhawks lose their leading rusher, but bring in junior college transfer Jocques Crawford to lessen the pain.

Defense - Nine starters return to a unit that held opponents to just 4.4 yards per play last season. The "D" also ranked number one in conference play, holding its opponents to just 21 ppg. It's true the Jayhawks did not have to face Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech (which they will this year), but they still have the second-best defense in the North.

Outlook - The talent is still there, even though their record will take a hit with the tougher schedule. Expect an 8-4 (4-4) campaign. Kansas is 9-4 ATS in non-conference games and 13-4 ATS as a home favorite the last four years.

3) COLORADO (4-1, 14-1, 25-1 Field) - The Buffaloes improved from 2-10 to 6-7, including a loss in the Independence Bowl in Dan Hawkins' second season.

Offense - Colorado has one of the youngest offenses in the country as only three of the 11 expected starters are upperclassmen. Cody Hawkins and his receiving crew will improve in the second year in the system, while heralded freshman RB Darrell Scott will wait his turn behind Demetrius Sumler. The O- line will get better as the year moves along.

Defense - The Buffaloes were dealt a couple of big blows in camp when two key components (LB Jon Major and DE Drew Hudgins) were injured and lost for the season. The line, led by veterans George Hypolite and Brandon Nicolas, is strong, but the rest of the defense still needs work.

Outlook - Injuries have hurt the depth of a team that was ready to make another jump in the standings. Colorado is still capable of pulling off a pair of upset victories (watch out West Virginia and Texas), but will win just five more games (4-4 in the Big 12). The Buffs are 5-11 ATS as underdogs the last three seasons.

4) KANSAS STATE (12-1, 50-1, 125-1) - The Wildcats dropped their final four games, allowing an average of 49.5 ppg in the process.

Offense - Josh Freeman improved in his sophomore season, completing 63% of his tosses with a QB rating of 127, which was 14 points higher than the year before. Unfortunately, two key offensive contributors will not be coming back, as K-State loses WR Jordy Nelson and RB James Johnson.

Defense - This unit allowed 476 ypg the final six contests after giving up just 326 ypg the first half of the season. With over half of the top 20 tacklers gone, coach Ron Prince went heavy into the JUCO ranks to shore up the defense.

Outlook - It might take a few weeks for all the new players to mesh, but with an easy out-of-conference schedule, look for a 6-6 record, with three of those wins coming in Big 12 play. The Wildcats are 9-2 as home favorites the last three years, but 0-7 as road favorites over the last four.

5) NEBRASKA (7-1, 12-1, 80-1) - The Cornhuskers lost six of their final seven games with a defense that gave up 46 ppg. That's why Bo Pelini is the new coach.

Offense - Bill Callahan and his west coast offense is a thing of the past, so look for the ground game to be the weapon of choice this season. The change in philosophy will also hope to keep a suspect defense off the field as much as possible.

Defense - Nebraska forced just one turnover in its final seven games. That's one reason the 'Huskers were a -15 in TO differential during that stretch. In fact, not a single member of the '08 two-deep secondary has a career interception. In addition, the LB crew brings in only three lifetime starts.

Outlook - The Cornhuskers are in rebuilding mode after last year's disastrous campaign, but there are a ton of seniors on the roster that will relish the coaching change. Five wins, with three coming in league play, is the predicted result for a team that is 4-1 as a home dog the last four years.

6) IOWA STATE (20-1, 100-1, 25-1 Field) - The Cyclones won just three games in '07, but two came in the final three games.

Offense - Success was doomed from the start as the offensive line returned just 12 career starts last season. Iowa State ended up 111th in the country in scoring at 18 ppg. This year the line brings back a combined 52 lifetime starts and the top three rushers also return. On the negative side, the Cyclones will be without their all-time leading passer (Bret Meyer) and receiver (Todd Blythe).

Defense - Opposing QBs have hit for a 70% completion rate or higher each of the last two seasons. That will change this year as the unit is far more experienced than the previous couple of campaigns. On the other hand, the run defense might take a hit as the team has lost both starting DTs and its top two LBs.

Outlook - The schedule is far less challenging this season without Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. Still, it will be an uphill climb for a team that is a couple of years away from making a run. Expect just a pair of victories, with one coming in league play. The Cyclones are 3-9 as favorites, but 18-12 as dogs the last four years.