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07/09/2010 - Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Braun lined an opposite-field single over Ryan Church's head in right field to score Rickie Weeks with the game- winning run in the 10th inning, as the Brewers earned a 5-4 comeback win over the Pirates in the opener of a three-game series.
Braun, who earlier in the game snapped out of an 0-for-19 slump, came up with runners on first and second and two outs after Evan Meek (4-3) intentionally walked Prince Fielder and struck the game-winner to end Milwaukee's five-game slide. Weeks scored without a play at the plate.
"It felt really good. It's been a tough stretch for me and a tough stretch for the team, so it was a big victory," Braun said. "There's a lot of season left, and we just want to focus on playing better baseball."
Fielder added a solo homer and Corey Hart had a two-run blast in the win, which was credited to John Axford (4-1) after he struck out Pedro Alvarez and Ryan Doumit to strand a runner on third in the top of the 10th.
Doug Davis, in his first start since May 10, surrendered four runs on seven hits and three walks over five innings for Milwaukee, while his counterpart, Paul Maholm, held the Brewers to two runs on three hits and a pair of walks in a seven-inning no-decision.
Andrew McCutchen went 2-for-5 with a home run and two RBI, and Lastings Milledge added two hits with a solo shot for the Pirates, losers of four straight overall.
Milwaukee's offense was relatively silent after Hart's two-run blast in the first inning, though Fielder's moonshot to right in the eighth off Joel Hanrahan cut the Brewers' deficit to 4-3.
With Octavio Dotel on the hill to start the bottom of the ninth, Carlos Gomez reached base on a one-out bunt single, stole second and moved to third when Doumit's throw went to center field.
George Kottaras followed with a triple down the right-field line to tie it and nearly scored the winning run seconds later, as Dotel's pitch got away from Doumit. However, the ball was quickly recovered by the catcher, and Kottaras was thrown out at the plate in plenty of time.
"The guys we ran out there in the eighth, ninth and 10th have done the job all year, but tonight they each gave up a run," Pirates manager John Russell said of his bullpen. "You don't see that very often. Unfortunately it happened tonight. It's a shame."
Trailing 2-0, Ronny Cedeno doubled starting the third and scored two batters later on McCutchen's base hit to left.
Milledge tied it, 2-2, in the fourth with his second homer of the season, and McCutchen's leadoff blast the next frame gave the visitors the lead. Jose Tabata singled after the round-tripper and scored on Pedro Alvarez's two-out double to right for a 4-2 score.
Game Notes
Davis had been on the disabled list due to chest pain...Tabata also had two hits for Pittsburgh, which had won three of the previous four over the Brewers after losing the first four meetings by a 53-4 margin...The Pirates went 2- for-11 with runners in scoring position.
<< Report: Knicks agree with PG Felton
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Knicks have reportedly come to
terms on a multi-year contract with point guard Raymond Felton.
According to the New York Daily News, the three-year deal could be worth $25
million for the fiv
<< Stockton takes lead at Dakota Dunes
Saskatoon, SK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brady Stockton shot an eight-under 64 to take
the midway lead Friday at the Canadian Tour's Dakota Dunes Casino Open.
Stockton, a 30-year-old from Arizona, completed two rounds on the Dakota Dunes
course wit
<< Buehrle, Pierzynski carry White Sox over Royals
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mark Buehrle spun seven scoreless frames and
A.J. Pierzynski hit two home runs and drove in a season-high four runs to
power the White Sox to an 8-2 victory over Kansas City in the opener of a
three-g
<< Wainwright dominant as Cardinals blank Astros
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Adam Wainwright turned in eight scoreless
innings while Albert Pujols collected two hits, including a two-run shot, and
drove in three as St. Louis downed Houston, 8-0, in the first of three
between
Argos edge Blue Bombers >>
Winnipeg, MB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cleo Lemon threw for 162 yards and ran for a
touchdown as he helped lead the Toronto Argonauts to a thrilling 36-34 win
over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Canad Inns Stadium.
Also putting together a str
Orioles C Wieters leaves after injury >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Baltimore Orioles catcher Matt Wieters left
Friday's game against the Texas Rangers after stumbling while running the
bases.
Wieters was seen limping to third on a Scott Moore double and was forced o
Marlins edge Diamondbacks behind Nolasco, Uggla >>
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ricky Nolasco pitched seven strong innings to
win his fourth straight start, and Florida edged Arizona, 3-2, in the second
portion of a four-game series.
Nolasco (9-6) allowed six hits and two runs, w
Stewart's slam completes another winning rally for Rockies >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ian Stewart knocked in a career-high six runs
and his grand slam was the big blow in a five-run seventh inning as Colorado
rallied to down San Diego, 10-8, in the opener of a three-game set at Coors
Field.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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MySportsbook.com Posts Heisman Trophy Odds
With 3,919 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and a mere seven interceptions last season, combined with a powerful South Bend Heisman legacy, odds makers at MySportsbook.com have given Notre Dame senior quarterback Brady Quinn the best Heisman Trophy odds at 5-2.
Quinn isn’t the only big man on campus this season. Oklahoma junior running back and 2004 Heisman runner-up Adrian Peterson, listed at 7-2, rushed for a combined 3,033 yards in his first two years as a college player and will give Quinn a run for his money.
This online sportsbook has also listed Troy Smith, Ohio State senior quarterback, as another strong favorite to win the 72nd Heisman Trophy. A 7-1 bet, Smith threw for 2,282 yards last season and also led the Buckeyes to a convincing 34-20 victory over Quinn and the Fighting Irish in last season’s Fiesta Bowl.
Current betting odds Heisman trophy are:
| Brady Quinn (QB, Notre Dame) Adrian Peterson (RB, Oklahoma) Troy Smith (QB, Ohio State) Michael Bush (RB, Louisville) Steve Slaton (RB, West Virginia) Brian Brohm (QB, Louisville) Chris Leak (QB, Florida) Mike Hart (RB, Michigan) Ted Ginn (WR, Ohio State) Darius Walker (RB, Notre Dame) Drew Tate (QB, Iowa) Marshawn Lynch (RB, Cal) Kenny Irons (RB, Auburn) Chad Henne (QB, Michigan) Kyle Wright (QB, Miami) Drew Stanton (QB, Michigan State) Kenneth Darby (RB, Alabama) JaMarcus Russell (QB, LSU) Drew Weatherford (QB, Florida State) Blake Mitchell (QB, South Carolina) Reggie Ball (QB, Georgia Tech) |
5-2 7-2 7-1 10-1 10-1 12-1 12-1 18-1 18-1 20-1 30-1 35-1 35-1 40-1 50-1 50-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 |
For complete NCAA Football odds visit MySportsbook.com.
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