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11/03/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One mile, eight-furlongs, once around the track. Mile races are the cross-roads event in the thoroughbred world. The meeting of sprinters and distance runners.
The fifth edition of the $1 million Dirt Mile, and the second time at Churchill Downs, has a highly competitive field of nine. With the layout at the historic track the race will be a one-turn event. Last year at the Twin Spires, Dakota Phone went from last to first to post a head victory over pacesetter Morning Line in a time of 1:35.29 on a fast track.
This year's race has three fewer horses than last year with four-year-old Trappe Shot the 3-1 program favorite. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the chestnut colt drew the far outside post with John Velazquez riding.
Trappe Shot has won two of four starts this year, but is coming off a fourth in the Vosburgh at Belmont Park after losing by a nose in the Vanderbilt Handicap at Saratoga. His wins were in a pair of spring stakes at Belmont Park, True North Handicap and Waldoboro Stakes.
Despite his last two starts Trappe Shot got the favorite's role for the Dirt Mile due to his ability to stay just off the pace and fire at the right time.
"The Factor, Shackleford and Tapizar are 1, 2 and 3, so they're going to have to go, so we might get back further stalking them. We might be 10-lengths back if they go a half in 44 (seconds). You never know," McLaughlin said. "It's a great post position because we don't have to be involved in all of that. We're out in the clear."
The Factor and Shackleford, both three-year-olds, are co-second picks at 7-2.
The Factor is trained by Bob Baffert and will have Martin Garcia in the saddle and carry three pounds less than the favorite as will all three-year-olds.
The gray colt was sidelined after losing the Arkansas Derby as the 4-5 favorite. It was discovered that he had a hairline fracture following the race. He returned in August to win the Pat O'Brien Stakes at Del Mar and was fourth in the Ancient Title at Santa Anita.
Preakness Stakes champ Shackleford will be ridden by Jesus Castanon for trainer Dale Romans. The chestnut colt was fifth in the Belmont Stakes with a strong second to Coil in the Haskell. He faded to eighth in the Travers, but came in second to Wilburn in the Indiana Derby.
"We hadn't done much with him since the Indiana Derby and wanted to give him a good work," the trainer noted after a workout. "I've never had a horse run bad after working in 58. You just can't make a horse work like that.
"I can't see anything happening other than The Factor going right for the lead and we'll sit just behind him. And, if Tapizar wants to join him, we'll be happy to sit third. He's not a horse that needs the lead. He'll listen to his rider."
The 4-1 fourth pick is Indiana Derby winner Wilburn owned by Stonestreet Stables and trained by Steve Asmussen. The three-year-old colt is working on a three-race win streak, which includes the Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx Racing.
"Julien (jockey Leparoux) got a dream trip in the Indiana Derby," Asmussen said. "The door was open for him, but he definitely stormed through it. You can get a good trip, but he looked good with the good trip. I like the acceleration he showed.
"I think the trip is extremely important with him. He's a great big horse, bit, tall and leggy. His confidence is exactly where you'd want it to be coming into a race like this, so we feel good about it."
Wilburn will again have Leparoux in the saddle and break from post five.
Another three-year-old entered in the Dirt Mile is Caleb's Posse who ran down Uncle Mo to win the King's Bishop Stakes at Saratoga. The colt is 5-1 in the program and will start from post eight with Rajiv Maragh.
Trained by Donnie Von Hemel, Caleb's Posse won the Amsterdam at Saratoga, but came in third in the Indiana Derby last time out.
"It's hard to say why he didn't run a little better, but it's not surprising that we ran third in a race like that," Von Hemel said. "I thought the winner ran a good race, he got through on the rail, but I don't think anyone was going to beat him (Wilburn) that day. Our horse just kind of ran even. It wasn't outstanding, but the main thing for us was the timing and straight three-year-olds. It was a way for us to get here.
"Because the Dirt Mile was the more likely spot for us, we decided to use the Indiana Derby as a prep," Von Hemel said. "We were stabled in Chicago (Arlington Park), so there wasn't a lot of travel for us. We figured we'd pop over to Indiana and then to Kentucky. We didn't want to have to make another trip back East."
At 12-1 is the well traveled Irrefutable. The five-year-old is trained by Baffert and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano from post six. The gray horse has started on five different tracks this year, including Churchill Downs.
He won a six-furlong allowance race in Louisville on May 4 and two months later moved into stakes company with a second in the Smile Sprint Handicap at Calder.
"We put him in and we know he's a longshot, but he ran well here last spring, and he ran his best race Beyer-wise here as well," Baffert remarked.
The horse was sixth in a pair of stakes before running second in the Ancient Title Stakes at Santa Anita to put him into the Dirt Mile.
"In the Ancient Title we just let him break and come from off the pace and it worked out; he ran a big race," Baffert said. "He'll be coming at the end."
At 15-1 is 2010 Cigar Mile winner Jersey Town. The five-year-old has Cornelio Velasquez riding for trainer Barclay Tagg of Funny Cide fame. The chestnut horse will go for his initial win this year from post seven.
The speedy Tapizar, as mentioned earlier, has the three hole and is 20-1 in the program with Garrett Gomez up for Steve Asmussen. In January the three- year-old won the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita and is coming off an optional claiming victory.
At 30-1 San Diego Handicap winner Tres Borrachos is the longest shot in the morning-line. He followed his win at Del Mar with a sixth in the Pacific Classic and a fifth in the Goodwood. Trained by Marty Jones, the gelding will break from post four with Joel Rosario riding.
There's more than enough speed in the Dirt Mile to give the stalkers and late runners a chance to pounce down the stretch. A good price can be had by all.
Morning-line favorite Trappe Shot over Jersey Town and Irrefutable is the play for Saturday.
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The most popular sports to bet on are NFL and college football along with NBA and NCAA basketball. There are multiple betting opportunities within those sports, beginning with the basic wager on a game’s outcome (also called betting the side). College Football Point spreads are used in both football and basketball in an attempt to even the attractiveness of each team in a match-up. ( See our article detailing how and why point spreads are made)
But you could also simply bet on the money line, or straight-up winner of the game. Oddsmakers use the money line so that more money must be risked on the favorite or expected winner and less money on the underdog to balance the action on both sides. While money line gambling is an attractive option for football and basketball bettors who only care about picking a winner, it is the primary option for those bettors who enjoy wagering on MLB baseball and individual sports like boxing, tennis, golf and racing events such as NASCAR. ( More details on playing the Money Line)
Another bet across all major team sports including football, basketball, baseball, and hockey involves wagering on the amount of scoring in a game, called an Over/Under total. For example, the Over/Under total on Super Bowl XXXIX was 48, which means a bettor could wager whether there would be more or less than 48 points scored by both teams combined in the game.
The final score of Super Bowl XXXIX was 24-21; the scoring of both teams added up to 45, which means the game went Under . So Under bettors won, and Over bettors lost.
Sports gambling doesn’t end there. Betting sides and totals are the most common wagers available everywhere, but many sportsbooks also offer future bets on big upcoming events like who will win next year’s Super Bowl and what movie will win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.
The main advantage of futures is that you can get appealing odds by betting far in advance. For example, with NFL futures you often can get much higher odds on a team by betting before the season even starts. A NFL future bet on a team to win the Super Bowl odds might be 20/1 in the preseason; but by midseason, their odds might decrease to 10/1 if they turn out to be legitimate championship contenders.
Involves one individual wager, whether it be on your team to cover the point spread, to win the game straight-up on the money line, or to go over/under the total.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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