Decisions, decisions, decisions

Cfootball Betting Lines

11/11/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There were many storylines this past weekend in college football, but the most important one took place in Louisiana where Alabama put its number one ranking on the line against LSU. It was also Nick Saban's first trip to Baton Rouge since leaving the Tigers four years ago.

LSU had won the last five meetings between these two clubs, but the Tigers were a combined 56-10 SU over that span while Alabama was just 33-30. LSU prevailed by a 41-34 score last season, marking the first time since 2001 that the final total was higher than 42 points. Speaking of totals, the over/under for this game was set at 47, while the Crimson Tide was favored on the road by 3.5 points.

For those gamblers that had to have action on this all-important contest, gut- wrenching decisions had to be made. Does one go with Alabama, the conference road favorite, which failed to cover two of its previous three league games, or can LSU be the choice after going 1-3 ATS in its last four SEC matchups?

If choosing a side proved too difficult, how would one attack the over/under? The Tigers had scored 24 points or more in every contest but one this season, and even though their defense has been the team's strength the last few years, the 2008 version has been an entirely different story giving up 50 points or more twice already this season.

On the other side, Alabama's offense had averaged 29 points in its last three games, after three consecutive 40-plus performances. The Crimson Tide were 5-3-1 to the under this season, with the three overs coming in the three September games in which Nick Saban's crew scored 40 points or more.

Given all those numbers, how does one make an educated guess as to which way to play this game? On our Sportsnetwork.com "Inside the Numbers" previews page, I ended up taking Alabama minus the points as the key play, with the over being the secondary selection. When analyzing the game, I felt the Tide would win 28-20. (Remember, the number was 47 so I certainly was not 100% confident in the over.)

What made me come to this conclusion? Alabama had not been an overwhelming top-ranked team this year despite its undefeated record. In fact, if the Tide were to meet Florida on a neutral field this coming Saturday, the Gators would be favored by close to two touchdowns. Still, Nick Saban's club has been one of the better teams away from home with perfect 4-0 marks, SU and ATS.

More importantly, LSU had not been playing at anywhere near the efficiency of a typical Les Miles-coached club. The Tigers defense had allowed an average of 24 ppg after their first eight games, by far the most they had given up at that stage of a season since allowing 23 ppg way back in 2001.

When making my decision, I felt Alabama minus the points was the better choice, rather than risking my money on the total since my final score was extremely close to the actual number.

When confronted with tough decisions such as these, I have found that it's best to go with the side rather than the total. Too many crazy things can happen that affect the over/under, such as turnovers at inopportune times, extreme weather conditions, or even coaches going two-point conversion-happy, that it's safer just to go with one team over another.

Additionally, try not to get cute by playing both sides and total, hoping for a double hit. More often than not, you'll end up splitting your wager and wind up rooting against yourself on one of the two bets.

THE GAME ITSELF

The matchup began a bit wilder than expected with both teams scoring two touchdowns in the first 30 minutes. The Crimson Tide grabbed a seven-point, 21-14 lead midway in the third, but LSU fought back with a six-minute scoring drive in the final stanza to knot the game at 21.

From that point on, emotions were rocking back and forth, especially when Tide quarterback John Parker Wilson scrambled into the end zone late in the game, but the play was called back due to holding. All it takes is one miscue and the folks who wagered on the Tigers and the under were given new life.

The two teams then traded punts with Alabama's Javier Arenas returning the second of the two 24 yards to the 'Bama 41-yard line with two minutes to go. Seven plays later, the Crimson Tide was at LSU's 12-yard line setting up for a 29-yard field goal attempt.

For the second time in a matter of minutes, an apparent scoring play had been nullified as Leigh Tiffin's kick was blocked sending the game into overtime tied at 21.

Remember my earlier comment of playing the side and total in the same game? If the field goal had been good, just one of the four combinations (LSU and the under) would have produced a pair of wins.

By now, everyone knows the end result. LSU quarterback Jarrett Lee threw his fourth interception and Alabama won it on a one-yard touchdown run by Wilson after a 24-yard pass play to Julio Jones.

Call it a lucky cover for those who wagered on Alabama as well as the over, as one would have never thought either would come out on the winning side after LSU tied it in the fourth quarter.

THE NEW TOP 10 AND THE UPDATED RECORD

The Gators have opened up some more breathing room as they now enjoy a four- point advantage on second place USC. Ohio State rejoins the Jeff Frank Top 10 in a tie for seventh with Alabama after blowing out Northwestern, 45-10. Here are the new rankings:

1) Florida, 112.5; 2) USC, 108.5; 3) Oklahoma, 108; 4) Texas, 105.5; 5) Texas Tech, 104.5; 6) Penn State, 102; 7-T) Alabama and Ohio State, 99; 9) Oklahoma State, 98.5; 10) Missouri, 98.

The overall record now stands at 43-39 with a 20-14 mark in key plays (2-1 last week, W - Texas Tech and UTEP, L - Clemson) and a 23-25 record in secondary selections (2-2 last week, W - Baylor and Western Michigan, L - Louisville and UCLA).

THIS WEEK'S PLAYS

It's been a tough few weeks for San Jose State. After compiling a three-game winning streak, the Spartans have dropped two of their last three, including a 21-0 loss to Louisiana Tech. That defeat marked the first time they were shut out at home in 40 years.

Now it's on to Nevada to play the Wolf Pack, a team firing on all cylinders after dusting off Fresno State, 41-28. Chris Ault's team is number one in the WAC in scoring, total and rushing offense, not to mention tops in the conference in rushing defense.

The Pack still need one more victory to become bowl-eligible, and a dominating performance against a team that has failed to cover its last three games will do wonders for their psyche heading into a showdown with Boise State the following week.

Take Nevada minus the points.

Ohio State rebounded well from its seven-point loss to Penn State with a scintillating show over Northwestern. The Buckeyes rolled up 45 points to knock off the Wildcats, 45-10.

Illinois fell to Western Michigan by six in a game in which the Fighting Illini converted just one of 13 third down opportunities. The loss left them one victory short of bowl eligibility, so look for Illinois to be fired up for this one, especially since they end the season on the road at Northwestern. In addition, Ron Zook's team is due for a win since the club has alternated wins and losses in its last six games.

The Fighting Illini have played some close games with Ohio State of late, as the last two meetings were both decided by a touchdown. In fact, the Illini outgained the Buckeyes both times despite being prohibitive underdogs.

Take Illinois plus the points.

Secondary selections include Kansas State, Mississippi State, Louisiana Tech, Stanford and New Mexico State.