Home Cooking: Cubs target seventh straight home win against Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

07/04/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Cubs have picked the perfect time to get hot. Today, they try to win their seventh straight game at home and their fourth consecutive game overall, as they continue a four-game set with the Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs moved back over .500 and closed to within 2 1/2 games of first place in the NL Central on Friday when Jake Fox drew a bases loaded walk, scoring Ryan Theriot in the bottom of the 10th inning, lifting Chicago to a 2-1 win.

Theriot finished 2-for-5, while Mike Fontenot and Koyie Hill each had two hits apiece for the Cubs, who are in the midst of their longest home winning streak since taking 14 straight in the Windy City from May 18-June 22, 2008.

Carlos Zambrano went an effective seven innings, but did not factor in the decision. The burly right-hander allowed one run on five hits, struck out three and walked the same number of batters. He also had an RBI single. Kevin Gregg (3-2) was credited with the win after working two scoreless innings.

"We got good pitching, kept us in the ball game ," Cubs manager Lou Piniella said. "Zambrano, (Aaron) Heilman, Gregg. To hold that team down to one run, you're pitching well."

Corey Hart accounted for the lone Milwaukee run with a bases loaded walk. The Brewers have dropped three straight. Craig Counsell had a hit and scored in defeat.

The loss was also Milwaukee's fifth straight on the road, where it hasn't lost six in a row since a nine-game slide from May 2-18, 2008.

Jeff Suppan pitched to a no-decision after going seven solid innings. He gave up a run on four hits, walked a pair and fanned four.

"We got to start hitting day games after night games, because the last two day games after night games we were shutout and today we got one run, a walk with the bases loaded," Brewers manager Ken Macha said. "So, we have to change that up a little bit. But 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position, you aren't going to win many games doing that."

Heading to the hill for the Cubs today will be right-hander Rich Harden, who is 5-4 with a 4.57 ERA. Harden won for the first time since May 12 on Monday in Pittsburgh, as he held the Pirates to a run and nine hits in seven innings. He also struck out nine and walked a batter.

Harden did not get a decision the last time he faced the Brewers, but is 1-0 in three starts against them, surrendering just three runs over 18 innings of those outings.

Milwaukee will counter with righty Braden Looper, who is 6-4 this season with a 4.90 ERA. Looper earned the win against the New York Mets on Monday, as he held them to one earned run and seven hits in 6 1/3 innings.

Looper has faced the Cubs 41 times (nine starts) and is 3-6 with a 2.57 ERA.

Milwaukee has lost five of its eight meetings with the Cubs this season, but won in five of its nine visits to Wrigley a year ago.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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