Lacking luster, Michigan visits Ohio State

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11/19/2008 - Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - College football's most storied rivalry will add another chapter this weekend, as the 10th-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes host the Michigan Wolverines. In the past, this showdown has often determined the Big Ten title, as both the Buckeyes and Wolverines are almost always in the running for the crown.

Unfortunately for Michigan, it has already sealed its first losing season since 1967 and snapped a 33-season bowl streak. The Wolverines close out their season this weekend, and will not win consecutive games in a campaign for the first time since 1962. Furthermore, they have lost eight games in a season for the first time in program history, as Rich Rodriguez's first campaign as the leader of the program has been disastrous.

Ohio State can clinch a share of the Big Ten title with a win against Michigan but will need Penn State to lose to Michigan State in order to represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl. The only two losses this season for the Buckeyes have come against USC and Penn State, two of the top teams in the nation. Since the seven-point home loss to the Nittany Lions on October 25th, OSU has won back-to-back games, including a 30-20 decision over Illinois last weekend.

Michigan owns a 57-41-6 edge in the all-time series between these two bitter rivals, but the Buckeyes have won six of the last seven meetings, including a 14-3 triumph in last season's matchup.

The Michigan offense has some injury issues heading into this final game. Quarterback Steven Threet suffered a head injury last weekend against Northwestern, and his status against Ohio State is uncertain. Tailback Sam McGuffie is also questionable with a knee injury, and fellow runner Brandon Minor is struggling with a shoulder injury that may keep him out of action. The fact that the Wolverines are only averaging 21.5 ppg and 299.5 total ypg suggests that the implementation of Rodriguez's offense has been met with many problems. McGuffie and Minor have combined to rush for 952 yards and 11 touchdowns, so the offense will be even less effective than usual if one or both miss this weekend's game. Threet, who has run for 201 yards and two scores, has completed just 51 percent of his passes for 1,105 yards with nine touchdowns against seven interceptions.

Last weekend against Northwestern, Threet and Nick Sheridan combined to complete just 12-of-36 passes for 83 yards. Carlos Brown did run for 115 yards in the tilt, but offense scored only one touchdown in the game and didn't play nearly well enough to win. "We had great field position a couple of times off of turnovers and didn't do anything with it," said Rodriguez after the game. "That is something we have been good at all year and today we just didn't do it."

It is hard to believe that Michigan is allowing 27.7 ppg, as the team typically possesses a strong defensive unit. The Wolverines have yielded 34 touchdowns to opposing offenses, including 18 rushing scores. While they have been able to limit foes to 3.4 rushing yards per attempt, the Wolverines are surrendering 12.4 yards per pass completion and have only come up with eight interceptions all season. Obi Ezeh has been one of the top defenders for Michigan, as he has made 96 total tackles, including seven TFLs. The other player worthy of mention is Brandon Graham, who has registered a stellar total of 18 TFLs, including nine sacks.

Northwestern did score three touchdowns against the Michigan defense last weekend, but two of the scores came on drives covering 39 and 40 yards. The Wolverines were tremendous against the run, holding the Wildcats to 59 yards on 37 attempts. They also came up with a pair of interceptions in the clash, so it is hard to put too much blame on the defense for the loss. "It's definitely tough to go out for our seniors in our home stadium and not come out with a win for those guys, for the team, for the program," said dejected linebacker Jonas Mouton after the game.

Last weekend, the Buckeyes pounded the ball on the ground against Illinois, finishing with 305 yards on 52 attempts. Chris Wells was sensational, gaining 143 yards and a touchdown on 43 carries while making every highlight show in the country by jumping over an Illini defender on one run. Freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor added 110 rushing yards and a score on 13 carries. "We knew we would have a lot better chance of winning running the ball," said Jim Tressel, who only asked his rookie signal caller to throw the ball 10 times in the tilt.

Overall this season, Pryor has completed 64.7 percent of his passes for 1,125 yards with 10 touchdowns against three interceptions. He has rushed for 560 yards and six scores, impressive to say the least. Wells, who has only played in eight games because of injury, has racked up 957 yards and seven touchdowns. Brian Robiskie has only caught 35 passes this season, but seven have gone for scores. Ohio State is scoring 26.9 ppg to go along with 332.7 total ypg.

The Ohio State defense struggled a bit against Illinois last weekend, as the Illini were able to post 25 first downs on the strength of 214 rushing yards and 241 passing yards. That total of 455 yards was the highest allowed by OSU by far, besting USC's 348-yard effort early in the campaign. The Buckeyes did come up with a pair of takeaways, but the club allowed two touchdowns as well. "With an offense like this (Illinois) that is so dangerous, you have to realize they are going to get some yards," said Ohio State standout linebacker James Laurinaitis. "As a defense you just have to make the big plays that cause turnovers. It's kind of like a bend, but don't break mentality."

Laurinaitis has recorded 109 total tackles, 40 more than his closest teammate. The Buckeyes are yielding only 13.6 ppg and 286.6 total ypg to rank among the national leaders in both categories. They have been tremendous against both the run and the pass.

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Colts give the ‘D’ its due

The Indianapolis Colts know that winning the Super Bowl last season put a huge target on their backs, and they expect opponents to go all-out to knock them from the top of the mountain.

They’ll get their first test from the New Orleans Saints this Thursday night. The defending champs had nothing but good things to say about the New Orleans defense this past week, praising their opponents’ pass rush and run-stopping abilities.

"They play very aggressively," head coach Tony Dungy told the New Orleans Times-Picayune. "They play a lot of man-to-man coverage, and they come after you. They have good pass rushers, and they're going to try to pressure us, I'm sure."

Both center Jeff Saturday and quarterback Peyton Manning gave New Orleans’ front four props, admitting keeping guys like Will Smithand Charles Grant contained would be a tall task for the offensive line.

New Orleans ranked second in total defense during the preseason at a sportsbook, allowing just under 233 yards per game. Last season, the defense finished 11th in the league after giving up 307.3 yards and 20.1 points per contest.

Not so sound on the ground

If Indianapolis' efficient offense has a weakness it has to be its running attack. The Colts one-two-punch of Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai is no longer, leaving the bulk of the carries to Addai, the second-year back out of LSU.

Former Saskatchewan Roughrider Kenton Keith was named Addai’s backup this week after beating out DeDe Dorsey for the second-string position. Indy has only three backs on the roster right now, including fullback Luke Lawton, and coach Dungy is aware of the thinness of his ground game. Sports Betting lines on the game can be found at BettingExpress.com

“We’ll continue to look. Luke Lawton’s done a good job for us too. So probably getting a third true tailback is something that we’d like to do,” Dungy told the Indiana Tribune-Star.

Last season, Addai rushed for over 1,000 yards in his rookie campaign and scored seven touchdowns on the ground.

Brees says bring it on

Opening the season on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions is not the way most teams would like to kick off their year – unless you’re the New Orleans Saints or their quarterback Drew Brees. This internet Sportsbooks had the Saints as the favorites.

Brees told the New Orleans Times-Picayune that he is excited to get the regular season started and the Colts are a great challenge for him and his teammates. The 28-year-old QB, entering his second season with the Saints, is expecting a wild environment in the RCA Dome this Thursday when the franchise celebrates its 2007-2007 championship.

Brees said he sees the opening game scheduling as an honor and a testament to how well New Orleans did last season. The Saints missed facing the Colts in the Super Bowl by one game, losing to the Chicago Bearsin the NFC Championship game.

"I mean, people think we can hang with these guys," Brees told reporters. "Even if they didn't, it wouldn't matter what they thought because as a team we're very confident. We know what we can do. We're not satisfied where we finished the season last year. And we've been looking forward to this opportunity for a long time."

SportsBooks ready for a shootout

Oddsmakers are preparing for some fireworks this Thursday when the NFL season kicks off. online Sportsbooks have Thursday’s total set at a whopping 52 points, accounting for two of the league’s most explosive offenses.

“This is like must-see TV,” Saints cornerback and former Colt Jason David told the Baton Rouge Advocate. “It’s two exciting offenses with great players. You’ve got a lot of star power on offense. At any given time a big play can happen. If I was a fan, I wouldn’t miss a snap.”

New Orleans, who ranked No.1 in total offense last season, can go blow-for-blow with the Colts’ attack. Head coach Sean Payton’s offensive schemes will get even better production out of Drew Brees, Reggie Bush and receiver Marques Colston now that they’ve each had a season of playing together under their belts.

The Saints and Colts were the top two passing teams in the NFL last year, but while Indianapolis managed to put up almost 27 points per game, New Orleans struggled to capitalize on their efforts. The Saints ranked fifth in points per game.

“Yards are great,” running backDeuce McAllister told reporters, “but to be able to score more touchdowns would be important for us.”

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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