New England Patriots 2008 Season Preview

Football Betting Lines

08/26/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After his team's stunning 17-14 Super Bowl XLII loss to the New York Giants, the illustrious quarterback stood behind a podium in front of an inordinately rabid, callous media and spoke wistfully about going for a title again next year. Fortunately for Tom Brady, none of the bloodhound reporters were smart (or cruel) enough to ask this question:

"Tom, you guys came into this game with the best record in NFL history. Over 18 weeks, you obliterated teams early in the season, took care of other elite clubs at all stops and thrived in every adverse, high-pressure situation. You, personally, a three-time world champion, led a prolific offense that shattered virtually every significant NFL single season record. Your team's defense allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league and featured three Pro Bowlers (not to mention at least three other star veterans who could end up in the Hall of Fame). Your special teams were sharp, and the consensus was that your head coach was the closest in the business to reaching Vince Lombardi's pedestal. If you couldn't win it all this year, how will you EVER win it all?"

Brady would have had as tough a time responding to that as he did New York's interior blitz.

Surely you have heard of the Super Bowl hangover. You know, the supernatural force that has caused six of the last seven Super Bowl losers to miss the playoffs the following season? If those six teams' Super Bowl hangover felt like the result of downing a few too many Keystone Lights the night before, you can imagine New England's must feel like the aftermath of pounding a few too many shots of Everclear (after overdoing it on the El Dorado).

We've always been able to offer advice to the Super Bowl loser. Chicago Bears? Improve your quarterback play. Seattle Seahawks? Upgrade your secondary. Philadelphia Eagles? Establish more of a run game. Carolina Panthers? Build on your experience, and maybe think about adding another playmaker or two.

But what do we tell the Patriots?

You gave up five sacks in the Super Bowl, so upgrade your offensive line? They already had three Pro Bowlers up front.

You got burned by Eli Manning in the fourth quarter, so revamp your secondary? Well, Asante Samuel (now an Eagle) was a first-team All-Pro. Rodney Harrison was a feared force. And, if you want to look ahead, Brandon Meriweather was an ascending '07 first-round pick. Not to mention, if Giants special teams ace David Tyree doesn't miraculously trap the ball against his helmet after Manning miraculously escapes a sure-fire sack on third-down-and-five, we're probably marveling at how the Pats "D" held New York to just 10 points.

A lot of people are eager to tell the Patriots that they need to introduce more youth at the linebacker position. There's some validity to this (hence the drafting of Jerod Mayo in the first round). But still, realize that the veteran linebackers last season weren't a problem. Mike Vrabel recorded 12.5 sacks. Tedy Bruschi led the team in tackles. Junior Seau routinely made big plays down the stretch. And free agent pickup Adalius Thomas earned every bit of the $20 million Robert Kraft guaranteed him.

The Patriots don't have any true weaknesses to correct--that's why they went into the final game undefeated. Thus, no Super Bowl loser has ever felt as little elasticity in trying to bounce back as this team will. The Pats are being asked to rebound their own three-point rim-out. Impossible? Just about. Suppose New England comes out and wins every game this fall. Not only will they still fail to assuage the criticism and decrease the doubts--they'll actually exacerbate them. After all, what the Patriots themselves said all season long proved to be true: winning every game doesn't mean anything if you can't win the last. In other words, this loss will follow them.

Of course, let's not overanalyze here. Stiff as New England's bounceback may be, they're at least under the direction of one Bill Belichick. And that wistful quarterback from behind the podium isn't too bad either. Belichick and Brady suffered their first postseason defeat together in 2005 (divisional round at Denver). They bounced back by leading an otherwise average Patriots club to the AFC championship in '06. In that game New England gave up an 18- point second half lead in a crushing loss to the rival Colts. Belichick, Brady and company rebounded again by winning their first 18 games in 2007.

As the losses become more painful, the Patriots seem to get stronger. The kidney-blow from the Giants would bring most franchises to their knees. But with Belichick and Brady, are we really going to classify the Patriots with "most franchises"?

Below we take a capsule look at the 2008 edition of the New England Patriots, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:

2007 RECORD: 16-0 (1st, AFC East)

LAST PLAYOFF APPEARANCE: 2007, lost to N.Y. Giants, 17-14, in Super Bowl

COACH (RECORD): Bill Belichick (91-37 in eight seasons with Patriots, 127-81 overall)

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Josh McDaniels

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Dean Pees

OFFENSIVE STAR: Tom Brady, QB (4806 passing yards, 50 TD, 8 INT)

DEFENSIVE STAR: Mike Vrabel, OLB (77 tackles, 12.5 sacks)

OFFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 13th rushing, 1st passing, 1st scoring

DEFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 10th rushing, 6th passing, 4th scoring

KEY ADDITIONS: QB Kevin O'Connell (3rd Round, San Diego State), WR Sam Aiken (from Bills), TE Marcus Pollard (from Seahawks), OL Oliver Ross (from Cardinals), OL Mike Flynn (from Ravens), LB Victor Hobson (from Jets), LB Jerod Mayo (1st Round, Tennessee), LB T.J. Slaughter (free agent), OLB Shawn Crable (3rd Round, Michigan), CB Fernando Bryant (from Lions), CB Lewis Sanders (from Falcons), CB Terrence Wheatley (2nd Round, Colorado), CB Jason Webster (from Bills), S Tank Williams (from Vikings), P Scott Player (from Browns)

KEY DEPARTURES: WR Donte' Stallworth (to Browns), WR Troy Brown (not tendered), TE Kyle Brady (released), LB Rosevelt Colvin (to Texans), ILB Larry Izzo (not tendered), LB Junior Seau (not tendered), CB Randall Gay (to Saints), CB Asante Samuel (to Eagles), CB Chad Scott (not tendered), DB Eugene Wilson (to Buccaneers), DB Willie Andrews (released), S Mel Mitchell (not tendered)

QB: New York's performance was so impressive that Football America seems to have almost forgotten about Brady's mind-boggling 50 touchdown passes and 117 rating. Instead, the focus is on the flaws of New England's offense that were exposed in Arizona. After seeing Brady pick apart Jacksonville's conservative three-man pass-rush in the Wild Card round, Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo predicated his Super Bowl game plan on pressuring the passer. Indeed, virtually every quarterback struggles with defenders in his face--and Brady is no exception. While courageous and poised in the pocket, the ninth- year veteran does not have an innately rocket arm like a Carson Palmer or a Brett Favre. Brady's precision and velocity derive from his textbook mechanics--which can't be executed with defenders invading his space. The backup plan behind Brady is uncertain, as Matt Cassel, Matt Gutierrez, and rookie Kevin O'Connell (3rd Round, San Diego State) were all vying for those duties in training camp.

RB: The Patriots shifting their focus a little more toward the run could mitigate some of their explosiveness, but at the same time, give opponents more to prepare for. The Giants weren't too concerned about Laurence Maroney, which is a waste considering Maroney is a fast and punishing young runner. If Maroney can stay healthy for all 16 games (something he hasn't done yet), he could produce the breakout season that most of Boston is expecting. However, given that Sammy Morris is fully recovered from the chest injury that ended his '07 campaign last October, there may not be enough carries for Maroney to get too far past 1,000 yards. Tenth-year pro Kevin Faulk is still an exquisite third-down back, plus the Patriots may refer to fullback Heath Evans or newcomer LaMont Jordan in short-yardage situations.

WR/TE: You may have noticed that New England's receivers are fairly decent. Ready as Maroney is, Brady and Josh McDaniels will continue to spread the field and air it out. Randy Moss has proven to be the perfect Patriot. He should finish somewhere near his 100-catch, 1,500-yard numbers of a year ago. However, it's unfair to expect any player to catch more than 15 touchdowns-- let alone 23. Wes Welker is option No. 2, though his inside position makes him a No. 3 on paper. And his production (NFL-leading 112 catches in '07) suggests he's actually a No. 1. Benefiting this season from the presence of both players will be third-year wideout Chad Jackson. Copious injuries have prevented the once-heralded Gator from having a substantial impact through his first two seasons, but with long-striding speed and an improved understanding of the offense, Jackson could emerge as an unexpected weapon in Donte' Stallworth's old role. If he doesn't, there's always Jabar Gaffney. Not to be forgotten is athletic tight end Ben Watson. He's coming off ankle surgery but should be in top form September 7. Backup David Thomas is more of a question mark. He must rebound from the broken foot that has plagued him for the past year.

OL: To get pressure on Brady, Spagnuolo overloaded New York's pass-rush up the middle. Not only did this obstruct Brady's vision and rattle the cages of Patriot guards Logan Mankins and Steve Neal, as well as center Dan Koppen, it also forced New England running backs to direct their pass-blocking help inside. This left Patriots tackles Matt Light and Nick Kaczur on an island, where they were manhandled by Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan. Left tackle Matt Light was an All-Pro last season, but that was simply a case of some uninformed media voters buying into the Patriot hype. What the Giants knew was that the 305-pounder is dexterous in run-blocking but rickety against speed-rushers like Umenyiora. Right tackle Nick Kaczur shows good power in the ground game, but he doesn't begin to have the agility to shadow fluid pass- rushers like Strahan. Logan Mankins' power and mobility make him one of the league's best young guards, center Dan Koppen has been nearly flawless for much of his six-year career, and Stephen Neal, the other guard, is on a similar level. New England's interior line also has adequate backups in Russ Hochstein and Billy Yates. Ryan O'Callaghan could eventually be a worthy option to replace Kaczur.

DL: The Pats' three-man line has for many years been the class of the NFL. Nose tackle Vince Wilfork is a ravenous road barrier inside. Right defensive end Richard Seymour fully healthy for the first time in ages (chronic knee problems have hindered Seymour), and the soon-to-be 29-year-old has dropped 10 pounds from his 6'6" frame. Being the most vociferous run-stopping end in football this year is a given for Seymour; surpassing his career-high of eight sacks (set back in '03) is a possibility. Left defensive end Ty Warren is another stalwart run-defender capable of reaching the quarterback. First-class backup Jarvis Green is a formidable one-gap penetrater in nickel situations. Green--who can play the run as well--has also proven to be more than adequate as a starter when called upon. Mike Wright won't get many snaps while playing behind Wilfork.

LB: Recognizing their lack of speed at inside linebacker, Belichick and GM Scott Pioli uncharacteristically drafted a linebacker in the first round: Jerod Mayo of Tennessee. Though injuries hindered him at times in college, Mayo has the athleticism, intelligence and football savvy that the Patriots covet. He played all three linebacker positions as a Volunteer and projects as Bruschi's heir apparent. New England would love for Mayo to be able to start right away--but that's a tall order. Longtime Jet Victor Hobson played in virtually this same scheme under Eric Mangini the past two seasons and could be a serviceable option in the short term. Veterans Mike Vrabel and Adalius Thomas can play inside as well, though both are at their best near the edges. Vrabel, the consummate linebacker for this system, is coming off his first Pro Bowl after notching a career-high 12.5 sacks. He'll turn 33 in August but, like longtime Patriot Willie McGinest (now in Cleveland), he should be effective in his outside role for another few years. Thomas's role needs to expand. New England paid him $20 million in guarantees to come aboard last season. He fit in perfectly but only reached the quarterback 6.5 times (he did have a team-high six tackles for a loss). Part of the issue was that Thomas often had to line up inside. This season, playing the part of Rosevelt Colvin, he should vie for Pro Bowl consideration. The linebacker depth across the board is solid, especially if Junior Seau decides to come back. Eric Alexander is a coverage specialist. Third-round rookie Shawn Crable was a potent pass- rusher at Michigan. Even special teams maven Larry Izzo can handle a few snaps from time to time.

DB: If not for memories of wide receiver Troy Brown keeping the defense afloat as a nickel back, one might declare this to be the year that the Patriots have over-pushed their luck with secondary personnel. During the offseason, New England said goodbye to three capable starters, including Pro Bowler Asante Samuel. However, Belichick believes that the arrival of special assistant coach Dom Capers can mollify things. Capers must establish his cornerback rotation. Ellis Hobbs is the only clear-cut starter at this point, and the candidates for the other starting cornerback job are Fernando Bryant, Jason Webster, Lewis Sanders, Terrence Wheatley and Brandon Meriweather. Wheatley is a mature second-round pick who has 4.29 speed, but that still might not be enough for him to acclimate right away. Meriweather, a first-rounder a year ago, is the most gifted of the bunch, but the Patriots would prefer to use him at free safety. As long as James Sanders is healthy, Meriweather likely won't crack the starting lineup in '08. Sanders is not flashy, but he consistently holds down the fort in centerfield. Rodney Harrison has lost some of his speed, but the 15th-year veteran is a proficient force, particularly as a head hunter over the middle. Should Harrison get hurt--he's missed 17 games over the past three seasons--Sanders could slide down in the box, or the Patriots could call on Tank Williams.

SPECIAL TEAMS: Stephen Gostkowski has done well as Adam Vinatieri's replacement, but not everyone believes he's earned the full trust of Belichick. In the Super Bowl, Belichick opted to go for it on fourth-and-13, rather than kick a 49-yard field goal. New England does not prioritize the return game, which is why you occasionally see the heavy-footed but sure- handed Kevin Faulk on run backs. Faulk is utilized because he doesn't fumble. Generally, reliable Wes Welker handles punt returns. Ellis Hobbs, when called upon, can be electrifying returning kicks. By the way, not that it matters, but New England's punter is Chris Hanson.

PROGNOSIS: Seeing how this team responds to the devastating conclusion of what had been the greatest season in NFL history--and perhaps professional sports history--is one of the most fascinating NFL storylines of 2008. For most clubs, a bounce-back would be impossible. But Belichick and Brady lend legitimacy to New England's chances. The final forecast here is that the Patriots season again ends in disappointing fashion, with an AFC championship loss to the Colts.

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Contact Andy Benoit and read all 32 of his 2008 team preview reports at www.NFLTouchdown.com