05/11/2008 - Washington, DC (Baseball Betting) - Dan Uggla hit a pair of solo homers, including the game-winner in the eighth inning, as the streaking Florida Marlins rallied for a 5-4 win over the Washington Nationals, finishing off a three-game sweep at Nationals Park.
Jeremy Hermida went 2-for-4 with a two-run homer for the Marlins, who have won seven straight. Uggla finished 2-for-3, was hit by a pitch and scored three times, while Alfredo Amezaga went 1-for-4, stole a base and scored a run.
Logan Kensing (2-0) picked up the win with a scoreless inning in relief of Scott Olsen, who allowed four runs on six hits over six frames. Kevin Gregg notched his seventh save.
Aaron Boone went 3-for-4 with a homer, a triple and two runs batted in for the Nats, who have dropped five of six. Ronnie Belliard added a two-run shot, while Jesus Flores was 2-for-4 with a double and a run scored.
Luis Ayala (1-3) surrendered three runs on three hits in the eighth and took the loss in relief of Shawn Hill, who held the Marlins to two runs on five hits in seven innings.
Down 4-2 in the top of the eighth, the Marlins used the home run to turn the tide against the Washington bullpen.
With Ayala on in relief of Hill, Amezaga led off by beating out an infield single. Hermida drilled the next pitch just over the wall in right for a game- tying homer.
Two outs later, Ayala left a fastball up in the zone that Uggla launched over the fence in right-center to put the Marlins on top 5-4.
Belliard worked a leadoff walk against Renyel Pinto in the bottom of the eighth, but was cancelled out when Ryan Zimmerman grounded to short to start a double play. Boone then lofted a lazy fly to right to end the inning.
Gregg walked Lastings Milledge to start the ninth, but Willie Harris and Elijah Dukes both popped up before Gregg got Flores to tap out to the mound to end the game.
Uggla was hit by a pitch in the top of the second, moved to third on Luis Gonzalez's single and scored when Wes Helms golfed a sacrifice fly to center.
Boone led off the bottom of the inning with a game-tying home run just to the left of straightaway center.
Flores started off the home third with an infield single, and two outs later, Belliard crushed a 1-0 fastball from Olsen into the left field seats to give the Nats a 3-1 lead. Zimmerman followed by beating out a soft grounder to short for a single, then came all the way around to score when Boone crushed a fly ball over Amezaga's head in center for a triple.
Hill made easy work off the Marlins until the top of the sixth, when Uggla clubbed a long fly ball to center that just carried over the top of the wall for his 10th homer of the season.
Game Notes
The Marlins have outscored their opponents 49-14 during their seven-game win streak...Florida leads the season series with Washington, 8-1. The Marlins are 6-0 at Nationals Park...The Marlins travel to Cincinnati on Monday to start a four-game series with the Reds...The Nationals begin a seven-game road trip on Monday with the start of a four-game set with the New York Mets...Attendance was 25,871.
<< Toronto, Cleveland to play doubleheader Monday after rainout
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sunday's game between the Toronto Blue Jays
and the Cleveland Indians has been postponed due to rain.
The game will be made up as a traditional doubleheader on Monday, as the clubs
will play twice to fini
<< Braves/Bucs game rained out
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sunday's game between the Atlanta Braves
and Pittsburgh Pirates was postponed due to rain.
The game will be made up as part of a doubleheader on Monday, with the first
pitch scheduled for 12:35 p.m. (e
<< Millwood sent to 15-day DL
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas Rangers placed starting
pitcher Kevin Millwood on the 15-day disabled list on Sunday with a strained
right groin.
Millwood left Saturday's 6-4 victory over the Oakland Athletics af
<< Ljubicic wins war in Hamburg opener
Hamburg, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ivan Ljubicic of Croatia was among a trio
of winners during the opening day of play at the Hamburg Masters Series open
on Sunday.
Ljubicic survived a three hour war to edge Steve Darcis of Belgium, 6-7
Rockies send struggling Redman to minors >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Rockies sent scuffling pitcher
Mark Redman to the minor leagues on Sunday, calling up Greg Reynolds to start
their game against the San Diego Padres.
The 34-year-old left-hander, who is 2-3
Vintage Sorenstam romps in Williamsburg >>
Williamsburg, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After a year filled with injury, Annika
Sorenstam proved she is back to her old form on Sunday.
Sorenstam fired a five-under 66 to cruise to a seven-shot win at the Michelob
Ultra Open at Kingsmill. Sh
Rockies call up prospect Reynolds, option struggling Redman >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Rockies sent scuffling pitcher
Mark Redman to the minor leagues on Sunday, while calling up top prospect Greg
Reynolds to start their game against the San Diego Padres.
Reynolds went 1-2 with
Beltran, Mets blast Reds >>
Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Beltran hit a two-run home run and
an RBI double, and the New York Mets downed the Cincinnati Reds, 8-3, in the
rubber match at Shea Stadium.
Oliver Perez (3-3) went six innings, holding the Re
MySportsbook.com refunds all bets on Oakland, Green Bay and Tampa Bay from NFL week one.
(September 14) – Week one of NFL action saw three teams go scoreless for the first time since 1977. Another four were unable to get a touchdown and almost half of the underdogs covered the spread. Those three teams saved bettors at MySportsbook.com from losing out completely, thanks to the company’s unique NFL Shutout Rule -- which ensures that if the team you backed goes scoreless, your wager is refunded.
Sportsbook refunded tens of thousands of dollars to customers who bet on Oakland, Green Bay and Tampa Bay, the three teams that stunk up the field so badly that their fans and backers never had a chance to get up from their couches and cheer. In the spirit of the low scoring start to the season, odds makers at the world’s largest online sportsbook and casino have set odds on how many total shutouts there will be this season.
MySportsbook.com has posted updated sports betting lines for week two of the season. Ben Roethlisberger’s health status is still questionable, so Willie Parker will try to lead Pittsburgh again as they travel to Jacksonville as a one point favorite. After beating up on his little brother last week, Peyton Manning will look to lead the Colts to victory against Houston. Indianapolis is a whopping 13.5 favorite in the match-up.
Seattle, last year’s highest scoring team, showed the power of their defense with their gritty 9-6 win in Motown over the ravenous Lions. They take their act back home to the comforts of Qwest Field where they will face the resurgent Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks are favored by a touchdown.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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